Betting on conditionals

被引：65
作者：
Politzer, Guy [2 ]
Over, David E. [1 ]
Baratgin, Jean [2 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Durham, Dept Psychol, Sci Labs, Durham DH1 3LE, England
[2] Inst Jean Nicod, Paris, France
[3] Univ Paris 08, CRAC, Paris, France
来源：
THINKING & REASONING | 2010年 / 16卷 / 03期
关键词：
New paradigm psychology of reasoning; Indicative conditionals; Conditionals bets; Ramsey test; de Finetti table; PROBABILISTIC-APPROACH; INDIVIDUAL-DIFFERENCES; IF;
D O I：
10.1080/13546783.2010.504581
中图分类号：
B84 [心理学];
学科分类号：
04 ; 0402 ;
摘要：
A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B, and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B. The first is that both the indicative conditional and the conditional bet are related to the conditional probability, P(B|A). The second is that de Finetti's three-valued truth table has psychological reality for both types of conditionaltrue, false, or void for indicative conditionals and win, lose, or void for conditional bets. The participants were presented with an array of chips in two different colours and two different shapes, and an indicative conditional or a conditional bet about a random chip. They had to make judgements in two conditions: either about the chances of making the indicative conditional true or false or about the chances of winning or losing the conditional bet. The observed distributions of responses in the two conditions were generally related to the conditional probability, supporting the first hypothesis. In addition, a majority of participants in further conditions chose the third option, ovoido, when the antecedent of the conditional was false, supporting the second hypothesis.
引用
收藏
页码：172 / 197
页数：26
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