Work safety evaluation in Mainland China using grey theory

With rapid socio-economic development in Mainland China, work safety remains a serious and continuous concern for the country. To better understand work-related accidents, we propose to analyze the dynamic situation and future trends of work safety in Mainland China using grey theory. The forecasting models, i.e., GM (1,1) models are constructed by use of annual data sets of work-related deaths from five branches: mining and commercial casualties, highway traffic accidents, railway traffic accidents, fire disasters, and all fatal casualties. The effectiveness of these proposed models is demonstrated through accuracy test. The predicted results show that the death counts, not only in the four sub-sections but also overall, will decline continuously, suggesting that the work safety situation will improve. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.