Stochastic route choice set generation: Behavioral and probabilistic foundations

This article addresses the generation of choice sets for the purposes of route choice analysis and flow prediction in uni-modal and multi-modal networks. Ample attention is devoted to the implications for choice set generation of these various purposes. Based on a theory on choice behavior, a new model-based choice set generation approach will be elaborated, called the doubly stochastic choice set generation model, meant for establishing choice sets prior to the choice modeling step. Because of its stochastic principle, a typical property of the proposed generation approach is that the size and composition of the generated choice sets are stochastic variables. We will devote ample attention to these stochastic properties using theoretical derivations and experimental studies. The article reports on the calibration of this generation approach for multi-modal networks and illustrates the approach with a number of predictions in various networks.