Russia's Demise as an Energy Superpower

Russia's status as an energy superpower is waning. While Moscow is raking in short-term gains from record-high energy prices, it stands to bear long-term losses. Western sanctions, the European Union's energy transition and Russia's limited pivot to Asia will have profound implications for the country's oil and gas industry. Since the Cold War, Russia's energy sector has been tied to Europe. Moscow exported hydrocarbons to the West in exchange for Western capital and advanced technology. The war in Ukraine has forced Europe to wean itself off Russian fossil fuel and accelerate its energy transition. Russia's energy decoupling from the EU will affect the structure of the state budget and alter the fabric of the Russian economy. The country's pivot to Asia can only partially offset Europe's decision to cut out Russian hydrocarbons. Furthermore, Moscow will become ever more reliant on Beijing, exacerbating their already asymmetrical relations.