The Effect of Climate Change on Controlled Drainage Effectiveness in the Context of Groundwater Dynamics, Surface, and Drainage Outflows. Central-Western Poland Case Study

Control drainage (CD) is a common practice implemented to control the water balance of drainage fields by increasing the amount of water retained in soil. Worldwide studies suggest that climate change can reduce the effectiveness of CD solutions, but no study of CD effects has been carried out in Polish conditions yet. In this study, the DRAINMOD (Wayne Skaggs, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA) computer simulation model was used to predict the effects of CD on the time horizons of 2021-2050 (near future) and 2071-2100 (far future) assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario. The effectiveness of CD solutions is presented for a drainage network with spacing of 7 or 14 m. Additionally, different dates of blocking the outflow from the drainage network (1st and 15th of March and 1st and 15th of April) and different initial groundwater table conditions (0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 m) were assumed. All simulations for different variants were carried out for the same period, i.e., from 1st of March to 30th of September. The results of climate models indicated that in the area of central-western Poland in the near and far future there will be an increase in air temperatures by 1.02 and 1.97 degrees C, respectively, and in precipitation by 5.98% and 10.15%, respectively. In addition, there will be a change in the structure of precipitation, especially with respect to the extension of rain-free periods and an increase in the amount of extreme daily precipitation. The effect of climate change will be a decrease in the mean groundwater table in the fields equipped with drainage systems from 2 to 5 cm. In addition, the number of days on which groundwater table will be above the level of the drainage network will decrease. For the drainage network with spacing of 7 m, the time of the groundwater table above the level of the drainage network will decrease by 5 and 7 days in the near and far future, respectively, while for the drainage network with spacing of 14 m, it will decrease by 4 and 7 days. Climate change will also reduce sub-surface outflow. Subsurface outflows will be smaller than those currently recorded on average by 11% and 17% and 12% and 18% for 7 m and 14 m spacing drainage networks, in the near and far future, respectively. The increase in rainfall intensity in the near and far future will result in a fivefold increase in surface outflow in comparison to the present situation. The simulations show that the greatest effectiveness of CD solutions will be achieved by starting the blocking of outflow from the drainage network on the 1st of March. The implementation of CD solutions since April in the near and far future will allow maintaining the groundwater table at the level presently observed for the conventional network (free drainage-FD).