Major Trends in Population Growth Around the World

被引:235
作者
Gu, Danan [1 ]
Andreev, Kirill [1 ]
Dupre, Matthew E. [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] United Nations Populat Div, New York, NY USA
[2] Duke Univ, Dept Populat Hlth Sci, Durham, NC 27706 USA
[3] Duke Univ, Dept Sociol, Durham, NC 27706 USA
来源
CHINA CDC WEEKLY | 2021年 / 3卷 / 28期
关键词
D O I
10.46234/ccdcw2021.160
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
The world's population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The decelerating growth is mainly attributable to fertility declines in a growing number of countries. However, there are substantial variations in the future trends of populations across regions and countries, with sub-Saharan African countries being projected to have most of the increase. Population momentum plays an important role in determining the future population growth in many countries and areas where fertility is in a rapid transition. With declines in fertility, the world's population is unprecedentedly aging, and the numbers of households with smaller sizes are growing. International migration is also on the rise since the beginning of this century. The world's population is also urbanizing due to increased internal rural to urban migration. Nevertheless, there are uncertainties in future population growth, not only because there are uncertainties in the future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, but also because there are many other factors that could affect these trajectories. International consensus on climate change and ecosystem protections may trigger population control policies, and the ongoing pandemic is likely to have some impact on mortality, migration, or even fertility.
引用
收藏
页码:604 / 613
页数:10
相关论文
共 25 条
  • [1] Andreev K, 2013, 20133 UN
  • [2] Generation of fine-scale population layers using multi-resolution satellite imagery and geospatial data
    Azar, Derek
    Engstrom, Ryan
    Graesser, Jordan
    Comenetz, Joshua
    [J]. REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT, 2013, 130 : 219 - 232
  • [3] Bloom D.E., 2011, 16705 NBER, DOI [10.3386/w16705, DOI 10.3386/W16705]
  • [4] Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold?
    Bongaarts, John
    O'Neill, Brian C.
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2018, 361 (6403) : 650 - 652
  • [5] Long-term dynamics of household size and their environmental implications
    Bradbury, Mason
    Peterson, M. Nils
    Liu, Jianguo
    [J]. POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT, 2014, 36 (01) : 73 - 84
  • [6] China's rapid urban ascent: an examination into the components of urban growth
    Farrell, Kyle
    Westlund, Hans
    [J]. ASIAN GEOGRAPHER, 2018, 35 (01) : 85 - 106
  • [7] Gu DN, 2015, RECOMMENDATION CONSI
  • [8] Jagger C, 2020, INT HDB HLTH EXPECTA, DOI [10.1007/978-3-030-37668-0#about, DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-37668-0#ABOUT]
  • [9] Lee R, 2011, POPULATION AGING AND THE GENERATIONAL ECONOMY: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE, P1
  • [10] How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?
    Liu, Daphne H.
    Raftery, Adrian E.
    [J]. POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, 2020, 46 (03) : 409 - 441