The cohesion effect of structural equivalence on global bilateral trade, 1948-2000

This article bridges two important approaches in the study of global trade - social network analysis and the gravity model - and examines how countries' structural locations in the global trade network influence bilateral trade from 1948 through 2000. The authors identify a cohesion effect of structural equivalence (the degree to which two nodes have similar ties with other nodes in the network) in global trade: two structurally equivalent countries develop more bilateral trade even after controlling for conventional dyadic factors. This is because common trading ties with other countries promote similar sociocultural values, information flows, and converging institutions, thereby boosting bilateral trade. The authors further demonstrate that the cohesion-generating role of structural equivalence has become more salient over time in the increasingly complex global trade network. Overall, this study shows that bilateral trade is embedded within the structural context of the overall global trade network, and this structural effect is historically contingent on the evolving nature of global economic activities.