Urban-Rural Polarisation in Times of the Corona Outbreak? The Early Demographic and Geographic Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in the Netherlands

The global health crisis due to the pandemic of the SARS-CoV-2 is associated with processes of urbanisation and globalisation. Globally well-connected areas with high population densities are hence expected to be disproportionately affected by COVID-19. This paper investigates the role of population density within the Netherlands, comparing hospitalisation and mortality related to COVID-19 across municipalities. The paper finds that infections, hospitalisation and mortality related to COVID-19 are not clearly correlated with the population density or urbanity of the municipality, also when controlling for age and public health factors. The paper concludes that while the public debate stresses the elevated risk of infections in cities, due to transgressive behaviour, the evidence in this paper suggests that the geography of the epidemic in the Netherlands is more complex. It speculates that the variation in urbanisation in most of the country might just be too small to expect significant differences.