Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case

被引：57

作者：

Dundulis, Gintautas ^{[1
]}

Zutautaite, Inga ^{[1
,2
]}

Janulionis, Remigijus ^{[1
]}

Uspuras, Eugenijus ^{[1
]}

Rimkevicius, Sigitas ^{[1
]}

Eid, Mohamed ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Lithuanian Energy Inst, Breslaujos Str 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania

[2] Vytautas Magnus Univ, Vileikos Str 8, LT-44404 Kaunas, Lithuania

[3] CEA Saclay, DANS SERMA DM2S, Commissariat Energie Atom & Energies Alternat, Bat 470, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

来源：

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY | 2016年 / 156卷

关键词：

Fracture mechanic analysis; Deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis; Finite element method; Bayesian method; Failure probability; Gas pipeline; RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT; ACTIVE CORROSION; PRESSURE; DEFECTS; SYSTEMS; NETWORK;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.003

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：195 / 202

页数：8

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