The diversity of population responses to environmental change

被引：47

作者：

Colchero, Fernando ^{[1
,2
]}

Jones, Owen R. ^{[1
,3
]}

Conde, Delia A. ^{[1
,3
,4
]}

Hodgson, David ^{[5
]}

Zajitschek, Felix ^{[6
,7
]}

Schmidt, Benedikt R. ^{[8
,9
]}

Malo, Aurelio F. ^{[10
,11
]}

Alberts, Susan C. ^{[12
,13
]}

Becker, Peter H. ^{[14
]}

Bouwhuis, Sandra ^{[14
]}

Bronikowski, Anne M. ^{[15
]}

De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M. ^{[16
]}

Delahay, Richard J. ^{[17
]}

Dummermuth, Stefan ^{[9
]}

Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo ^{[18
]}

Frisenvaenge, John ^{[19
]}

Hesselsoe, Martin ^{[19
]}

Larson, Sam ^{[20
]}

Lemaitre, Jean-Francois ^{[21
]}

Mcdonald, Jennifer ^{[5
]}

Miller, David A. W. ^{[22
]}

O'donnell, Colin ^{[23
]}

Packer, Craig ^{[24
]}

Raboy, Becky E. ^{[25
]}

Reading, Chris J. ^{[26
]}

Wapstra, Erik ^{[27
]}

Weimerskirch, Henri ^{[28
]}

While, Geoffrey M. ^{[28
,29
]}

Baudisch, Annette ^{[2
,3
,30
]}

Flatt, Thomas ^{[31
]}

Coulson, Tim ^{[10
]}

Gaillard, Jean-Michel ^{[21
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Southern Denmark, Interdisciplinary Ctr Populat Dynam, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark

[2] Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark

[3] Univ Southern Denmark, Inst Biol, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark

[4] Species360 Conservat Sci Alliance, 7900 Int Dr,Suite 1040, Bloomington, MN 55425 USA

[5] Univ Exeter, Ctr Ecol & Conservat, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Cornwall Campus, Penryn TR10 9EZ, Cornwall, England

[6] Univ New South Wales, Evolut & Ecol Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

[7] Univ New South Wales, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

[8] Univ Zurich, Dept Evolutionary Biol & Environm Studies, Winterthurerstr 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland

[9] UniMail, Info Fauna Karch, Batiment G,Bellevaux 51, CH-2000 Neuchatel, Switzerland

[10] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX2 6GG, England

[11] Univ Alcala, Dept Ciencias Vida, Madrid 28805, Spain

[12] Duke Univ, Dept Biol & Evolutionary Anthropol, Durham, NC 27708 USA

[13] Natl Museums Kenya, Inst Primate Res, Nairobi, Kenya

[14] Inst Avian Res, Vogelwarte 21, D-26386 Wilhelmshaven, Germany

[15] Iowa State Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Organismal Biol, 251 Bessey Hall, Ames, IA USA

[16] Royal Zool Soc Antwerp, Ctr Res & Conservat, Koningin Astridpl, Antwerp, Belgium

[17] Anim & Plant Hlth Agcy, Natl Wildlife Management Ctr, Woodchester Pk, Nympsfield GL10 3UJ, Glos, England

[18] Yale Univ, Dept Anthropol, New Haven, CT 06511 USA

[19] Sciencepk NOVI, Niels Jernes Vej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg O, Denmark

[20] Univ Penn, Dept Anthropol, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA

[21] Univ Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Lab Biometrie & Biol Evolut, F-69622 Villeurbanne, France

[22] Penn State Univ, Dept Ecosyst Sci & Management, 411 Forest Resources Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[23] Te Papa Atawhai, Dept Conservat, POB 4715, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand

[24] Univ Minnesota, Coll Biol Sci, Dept Ecol Evolut & Behav, 123 Snyder Hall,1475 Gortner Ave, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[25] Univ Toronto, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada

[26] CEH Wallingford, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Benson Lane, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England

[27] Univ Tasmania, Sch Biol Sci, Private Bag 5, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[28] CNRS, Ctr Etud Biol Chize, F-79360 Villiers En Bois, France

[29] Univ Oxford, Edward Grey Inst, Dept Zool, South Pk Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England

[30] Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Publ Hlth, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark

[31] Univ Fribourg, Dept Biol, Ch Musee 10, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland

来源：

ECOLOGY LETTERS | 2019年 / 22卷 / 02期

基金：

瑞士国家科学基金会; 美国国家科学基金会; 欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

Age-structured population models; Bayesian inference; fecundity; mortality; survival; ESTIMATING DENSITY-DEPENDENCE; AGE-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL; RUN GROWTH-RATES; LIFE-HISTORY; VARIABLE ENVIRONMENTS; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TIME-SERIES; TRADE-OFF; DYNAMICS; EXTINCTION;

D O I：

10.1111/ele.13195

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

引用

页码：342 / 353

页数：12

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