Recent loss of closed forests is associated with Ebola virus disease outbreaks

被引：88

作者：

Olivero, Jesus ^{[1
]}

Fa, John E. ^{[2
,3
]}

Real, Raimundo ^{[1
]}

Marquez, Ana L. ^{[1
]}

Farfan, Miguel A. ^{[1
]}

Vargas, J. Mario ^{[1
]}

Gaveau, David ^{[3
]}

Salim, Mohammad A. ^{[3
]}

Park, Douglas ^{[4
]}

Suter, Jamison ^{[5
]}

King, Shona ^{[4
]}

Leendertz, Siv Aina ^{[6
,7
]}

Sheil, Douglas ^{[8
]}

Nasi, Robert ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Malaga, Fac Ciencias, Dept Biol Anim, Grp Biogeog Diversidad & Conservac, E-29071 Malaga, Spain

[2] Manchester Metropolitan Univ, Sch Sci & Environm, Div Biol & Conservat Ecol, Manchester M15 6BH, Lancs, England

[3] Ctr Int Forestry Res CIFOR, Jalan Cifor Rawajaha, Kota Bogor 16115, Jawa Barat, Indonesia

[4] ERM Fdn, Exchequer Court, 33 St Mary Axe, London EC3A 8AA, England

[5] Environm Fdn Africa, 16 Main Peninsula Rd, Sussex, Freetown, Sierra Leone

[6] Robert Koch Inst, Epidemiol Highly Infect Microorganisms, Seestr 10, D-13353 Berlin, Germany

[7] Robert Koch Inst, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, Seestr 10, D-13353 Berlin, Germany

[8] Norwegian Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci & Nat Resource Management, POB 5003, NO-1432 As, Norway

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2017年 / 7卷

关键词：

HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER; BATS; FRAGMENTATION; PREDICTION; BUSHMEAT; AFRICA; POLICY;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-017-14727-9

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a contagious, severe and often lethal form of hemorrhagic fever in humans. The association of EVD outbreaks with forest clearance has been suggested previously but many aspects remained uncharacterized. We used remote sensing techniques to investigate the association between deforestation in time and space, with EVD outbreaks in Central and West Africa. Favorability modeling, centered on 27 EVD outbreak sites and 280 comparable control sites, revealed that outbreaks located along the limits of the rainforest biome were significantly associated with forest losses within the previous 2 years. This association was strongest for closed forests (> 83%), both intact and disturbed, of a range of tree heights (5-> 19 m). Our results suggest that the increased probability of an EVD outbreak occurring in a site is linked to recent deforestation events, and that preventing the loss of forests could reduce the likelihood of future outbreaks.

引用

页数：9

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