VERIFYING FORECASTS SPATIALLY

Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison project (ICP) tests new spatial forecast verification methods to find out how they handle different types of forecast error and what they tell us about forecast performance. The ICP was started to help reduce the learning curve for potential users and to better understand what types of information each method gives, as well as the pros and cons of the methods. Initial attention for the ICP has been given to quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) test cases, as well as very simple geometric cases. Most of the techniques proposed can be classified into one of the following four categories, including scale separation, neighborhood, features based, and field deformation. All of the methods supply information about intensity errors, but in very different ways. Future spatial verification methods are likely to combine filter and displacement approaches.