Mass movements susceptibility mapping by using heuristic approach. Case study: province of Tetouan (North of Morocco)

This research paper aims to model Mass Movements Susceptibility (MMS) in the province of Tetouan. First, we identified the characteristics and spatial mapping of the different types of MM (collapse, mudflows, and complex landslides) by means of the interpretation of satellite images and from fieldwork. Subsequently, we selected the predictive parameters controlling the occurrence of MM e.g. lithology, land use, fault density, hydrographic network density, slope degrees, slope aspects, and elevation. We used the heuristic method for Modeling Mass Movements Susceptibility (MMMS). The choice of this method compared to other methods (fractal, factorial, and neurons) is justified by the possibilities of intervention and the judgment of the expert who relies on the ground truth to select the parameters, to identify the classes, and to assign the weights to each one; unlike to other methods with steps that are done automatically and randomly. The results of the validation of the susceptibility map correspond to 70% compared to the field data and it includes five susceptibility classes (not susceptible, low, moderate, high, and very high). Indeed, the originality of this paper relies on the fact that the creation of our susceptibility map will eventually indicate the areas of roads, dwellings, the extension of urbanization, and dams, which are located in areas at risk of MM. Our map is also a powerful decision-making tool to conduct management plans and to guide the selection of sites to build new projects; which help mitigate the socio-economic impacts usually encountered when mass movements in Tetouan province are triggered.