The 2019 September 24, Mw=6, Mirpur earthquake, NW Himalaya: Geodetic evidence for shallow, near-horizontal decollement rupture of the Main Himalayan Thrust

We present a source model for the 2019 M-w = 6 Mirpur earthquake, NW Himalaya using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements. Bayesian inversion of InSAR data from both ascending and descending orbits suggests that the earthquake ruptured a shallow (Depth similar to 5 km), near-horizontal (Dip similar to 2.5 degrees) up-dip portion of the decollement of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The distributed slip model suggests a compact rupture terminating the up-dip end at the base of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) with higher slip (> 0.4 m) around the hypocentre, equivalent to a moment magnitude of M-w = 6. A shallow up-dip rupture of the MHT through a moderate magnitude earthquake is atypical as Himalayan earthquakes generally originate at the downdip portion of the MHT and propagate towards south. We estimate a low effective coefficient of friction of 0.06 +/- 0.02 from the slip model and suggest that high pore fluid pressures and/or a weak, lubricated portion of decollement could have caused a local, near-horizontal rupture at the base of the MFT. The 2019 Mirpur earthquake released a small fraction of the accumulated strain energy since the 1555 Kashmir earthquake. Coseismic Coulomb stress change analysis suggests a significant increase in stress on the locked, up-dip portion of the MHT and the frontal fold-thrust system. These findings compel a revisit of the seismic hazard assessment of the northwestern Himalaya.