Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation

被引：95

作者：

Dray, Lynnette ^{[1
]}

Schafer, Andreas W. ^{[1
]}

Grobler, Carla ^{[2
]}

Falter, Christoph ^{[2
]}

Allroggen, Florian ^{[2
]}

Stettler, Marc E. J. ^{[3
]}

Barrett, Steven R. H. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] UCL, Sch Environm Energy & Resources, Air Transportat Syst Lab, London, England

[2] MIT, Dept Aeronaut & Astronaut, Lab Aviat & Environm, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[3] Imperial Coll London, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2022年 / 12卷 / 10期

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

SOCIAL COST; JET FUEL; CONTRAILS; TECHNOLOGY; SYSTEMS; DIESEL;

D O I：

10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways-synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic fuels from green hydrogen and atmospheric CO2, and the direct use of green liquid hydrogen-could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together with continued efficiency gains and contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle aviation CO2 emissions by 89-94% compared with year-2019 levels, despite a 2-3-fold growth in demand by 2050. The aviation sector could manage the associated cost increases, with ticket prices rising by no more than 15% compared with a no-intervention baseline leading to demand suppression of less than 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments on the order of US$0.5-2.1 trillion over a 30 yr period. However, our pathways reduce aviation CO2-equivalent emissions by only 46-69%; more action is required to mitigate non-CO2 impacts.

引用

页码：956 / +

页数：21