GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS IN GOOD TIMES AND BAD TIMES: THE CASE OF EMERGING MARKETS

被引：11

作者：

Reis Gomes, Fabio Augusto ^{[1
]}

Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko ^{[1
]}

Soave, Gian Paulo ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Sao Paulo FEARP USP, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[2] Fed Univ Bahia UFBA, Salvador, BA, Brazil

来源：

MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS | 2022年 / 26卷 / 03期

关键词：

Fiscal Policy; Emerging Markets; Bayesian Threshold Hierarchical Panel VAR; State-Dependent Multipliers; FISCAL-POLICY; COUNTRY SPREADS; SHOCKS; PANEL;

D O I：

10.1017/S136510052000036X

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We investigate the presence of nonlinear effects of government spending shocks during good and bad times in a panel of 17 emerging markets through the lens of a Bayesian panel threshold VAR model. We find that the responses of gross domestic product, consumption, investment, trade balance, real exchange rate, and real interest rates vary depending on the state of the economy. Particularly, in slump periods, both consumption and investment may respond negatively to a government purchase stimulus, unlike in normal times. Our estimated government spending multipliers are less than one in the two regimes and can be zero in bad times.

引用

页码：726 / 768

页数：43

共 59 条

[1] THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIER IN A MODEL WITH THE COST CHANNEL [J].