Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions

被引:455
作者
Mora, Camilo [1 ]
Spirandelli, Daniele [2 ,3 ]
Franklin, Erik C. [1 ,4 ]
Lynham, John [5 ,6 ]
Kantar, Michael B. [7 ]
Miles, Wendy [8 ,9 ]
Smith, Charlotte Z. [10 ]
Freel, Kelle [4 ]
Moy, Jade [11 ]
Louis, Leo V. [12 ]
Barba, Evan W. [4 ]
Bettinger, Keith [13 ]
Frazier, Abby G. [13 ,14 ]
Colburn, John F. [15 ]
Hanasaki, Naota [16 ]
Hawkins, Ed [17 ]
Hirabayashi, Yukiko [18 ]
Knorr, Wolfgang [19 ]
Little, Christopher M. [20 ]
Emanuel, Kerry [21 ]
Sheffield, Justin [22 ,23 ]
Patz, Jonathan A. [24 ]
Hunter, Cynthia L. [11 ]
机构
[1] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Geog & Environm, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[2] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Urban & Reg Planning, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[3] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sea Grant Coll, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[4] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Hawaii Inst Marine Biol, Kaneohe, HI USA
[5] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Econ, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[6] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Univ Hawaii Econ Res Org, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[7] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Trop Plant & Soil Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[8] Pacific Isl Climate Change Cooperat, Honolulu, HI USA
[9] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Ctr Conservat Res & Training, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[10] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Management, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[11] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Biol, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[12] Cornell Univ, Dept Nat Resources, Fernow Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
[13] East West Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA
[14] US Forest Serv, USDA, Pacific Southwest Res Stn, Inst Pacific Isl Forestry, Hilo, HI USA
[15] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Architecture, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[16] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
[17] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England
[18] Shibaura Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan
[19] Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden
[20] Atmospher & Environm Res Inc, Oceanog Dept, Lexington, MA USA
[21] MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
[22] Univ Southampton, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Southampton, Hants, England
[23] Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[24] Univ Wisconsin, Global Hlth Inst, Madison, WI USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
LAND-COVER CHANGES; GLOBAL CLIMATE; WATER-QUALITY; EXTREME WEATHER; CHANGE IMPACTS; HEAT WAVES; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; ECONOMIC-IMPACT; HEALTH IMPACTS;
D O I
10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The ongoing emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is triggering changes in many climate hazards that can impact humanity. We found traceable evidence for 467 pathways by which human health, water, food, economy, infrastructure and security have been recently impacted by climate hazards such as warming, heatwaves, precipitation, drought, floods, fires, storms, sea-level rise and changes in natural land cover and ocean chemistry. By 2100, the world's population will be exposed concurrently to the equivalent of the largest magnitude in one of these hazards if emmisions are aggressively reduced, or three if they are not, with some tropical coastal areas facing up to six simultaneous hazards. These findings highlight the fact that GHG emissions pose a broad threat to humanity by intensifying multiple hazards to which humanity is vulnerable.
引用
收藏
页码:1062 / +
页数:13
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