Ant Colony Optimization based on multi-searching to estimate the natural gas demand: Case of Turkey

被引：0

作者：

Toksari, M. Duran ^{[1
]}

Toksari, Murat ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Erciyes Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Fac Engn, TR-38039 Kayseri, Turkey

[2] Nigde Univ, Dept Prod Management & Mkt, Nigde, Turkey

来源：

ENERGY EXPLORATION & EXPLOITATION | 2012年 / 30卷 / 02期

关键词：

Natural gas demand; Ant Colony Optimization; Economic indicators; Central Anatolia Region; Turkey; PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND; ALGORITHM; CONSUMPTION; RESIDUES; SECTOR;

D O I：

10.1260/0144-5987.30.2.223

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

In this paper we propose a new version of the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to predict the natural gas demand problem. This heuristic approach will estimate the Turkey's natural gas demand based on economic indicators. The well-known ACO is multi-agent systems in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. In this paper the proposed approach presents that the many ant colonies begin the searching from different random points. Ant Colony Optimization Natural Gas Demand Estimation (ACONGDE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear and quadratic. Quadratic_ACONGDE provided better fit solution due to the fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACONGDE model plans the natural gas demand of Turkey until 2025 for three scenarios. We also present an estimation of the natural gas demand for Central Anatolia Region of Turkey using population rates.

引用

页码：223 / 238

页数：16

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