Long-term outcomes and risk factors of recurrent biliary obstruction after permanent endoscopic biliary stenting for choledocholithiasis in high-risk patients

Objective To elucidate the long-term outcomes of permanent endoscopic biliary stenting (EBS) and risk factors for recurrent biliary obstruction (RBO) in high-risk or elderly patients with common bile duct (CBD) stones. Methods The electronic database of Hakodate Municipal Hospital was searched to identify elderly or high-risk patients with CBD stones who had undergone permanent EBS using a plastic stent without stone removal and were followed up between April 2011 and May 2019, with no further intervention until symptoms occurred. Results We analyzed a total of 47 patients, of whom 19 (40.4%) were men, with a median age of 86 years (interquartile range 80-90 years). RBO and death without biliary disease occurred in 14 (29.8%) and 19 (40.4%) patients, respectively. The cumulative RBO rates at 20, 40, and 60 months were 22.1%, 31.8%, and 35.5%, respectively. The median time to RBO was 13.0 and 38.0 months in the group with CBD stone >= 15 mm and 11-14 mm in diameter, respectively. The cumulative RBO incidence rate in the group with CBD stone <= 10 mm in diameter did not reach 50%. The cumulative RBO incidence rates were significantly different among the three groups based on the CBD stone diameter (competing risk analysis, P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that an increase in CBD stone diameter predicted the increased risk of RBO (hazard ratio 1.26, P = 0.01). Conclusions Permanent EBS is a feasible option for high-risk patients with small CBD stones.