Malignant pleural effusion survival prognostication in an Asian population

Background and objective LENT and PROMISE scores prognosticate survival in patients with MPE. Prognostication guides the selection of interventions and management. However, the predictive value of these scores and their refinements (modified-LENT) in Asians remain unclear. We aim to evaluate the performance of LENT, modified-LENT and clinical PROMISE scores; identify predictors of survival; and develop an alternative prognostication tool should current scores lack accuracy. Methods Retrospective medical record review of an Asian pleuroscopy database from 2011 to 2018 of patients with MPE was conducted. The prognostic capability of current available scores were evaluated using C-statistics. Demographic and clinical variables as predictors of survival were assessed, and an alternative model was developed using logistic regression. Results In 130 patients, the C-statistics for modified-LENT was not significantly different from LENT (0.59 (95% CI: 0.52-0.67) vs 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49-0.63); P = 0.403). In 57 patients, the PROMISE C-statistics was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.53-0.91). In our alternative prognostication model (n = 147), Sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, Leukocyte count, EGFR mutation, Chemotherapy and primary Tumour type (SELECT) were predictors of 90-day mortality (C-statistic = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95)). SELECT sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios using a predicted probability of 90-day mortality cut-off point of 10% were 0.91, 0.68, 0.34, 0.98, 2.83 and 0.13, respectively. Conclusion The LENT, modified-LENT and PROMISE scores have poor accuracy of survival prognostication in Asian patients with MPE undergoing pleuroscopy. The proposed SELECT prognostication model is accurate at identifying patients with high probability of survival at 90 days.