Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise

被引:73
作者
Warren, Rachel [1 ]
Price, Jeff [2 ,5 ]
Fischlin, Andreas [3 ]
Santos, Santiago de la Nava [1 ]
Midgley, Guy [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[2] Calif State Univ Chico, Dept Geol & Environm Sci, Chico, CA 95929 USA
[3] ETH, Dept Environm Sci, Inst Integrat Biol Ecol Evolut & Dis, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
[4] S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Global Change & Biodivers Program, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa
[5] World Wildlife Fund US, Washington, DC 20037 USA
关键词
SEA-LEVEL RISE; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; PLANT DIVERSITY; RANGE SHIFTS; FUTURE PROJECTIONS; EXTINCTION RISK; CARBON STORAGE; BIODIVERSITY; VULNERABILITY; RESPONSES;
D O I
10.1007/s10584-010-9923-5
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (Delta T-g). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as Delta T-g reaches and exceeds 2A degrees C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame "sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change". Unless Delta T-g is constrained to below 2A degrees C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation.
引用
收藏
页码:141 / 177
页数:37
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