A quantitative framework for analysing long term spatial clustering and vegetation fragmentation in an urban landscape using multi-temporal landsat data

Rapid urbanization threatens urban green spaces and vegetation, demonstrated by a decrease in connectivity and higher levels of fragmentation. Understanding historic spatial and temporal patterns of such fragmentation is important for habitat and biological conservation, ecosystem management and urban planning. Despite their potential value, Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) measures have not been sufficiently exploited in monitoring the spatial and temporal variability in clustering and fragmentation of vegetation patterns in urban areas. LISA statistics are an important structural measure that indicates the presence of outliers, zones of similarity (hot spots) and of dissimilarity (cold spots) at proximate locations, hence they could be used to explicitly capture spatial patterns that are clustered, dispersed or random. In this study, we applied landscape metrics, LISA indices to analyse the temporal variability in clustering and fragmentation patterns of vegetation patches in Harare metropolitan city, Zimbabwe using Landsat series data for 1994, 2001 and 2017. Analysis of landscape metrics showed an increase in the fragmentation of vegetation patches between 1994-2017 as shown by the decrease in mean patch size, an increase in number of patches, edge density and shape complexity of vegetation patches. The study further demonstrates the utility of LISA indices in identifying key hot spot and cold spots. Comparatively, the highly vegetated northern parts of the city were characterised by significantly high positive spatial autocorrelation (p < 0.05) of vegetation patches. Conversely, more dispersed vegetation patches were found in the highly and densely urbanized western, eastern and southern parts of the city. This suggest that with increasing vegetation fragmentation, small and isolated vegetation patches do not spatially cluster but are dispersed geographically. The findings of the study underline the potential of LISA measures as a valuable spatially explicit method for the assessment of spatial clustering and fragmentation of urban vegetation patterns.