A Methodology for Evaluating Component-Level Loss Predictions of the FEMA P-58 Seismic Performance Assessment Procedure

As performance-based earthquake engineering (FEMA P-58) becomes more widely adopted in design and risk analysis practice, it is important to understand the degree to which the calculations reflect reality. This article proposes a methodology for evaluating P-58 component-level loss predictions across buildings subjected to given seismic events, which involves ranking P-58 loss predictions according to categorical component damage information recorded on post-earthquake damage surveys. The methodology explicitly incorporates uncertainties in predictions and utilizes a ground shaking benchmark to determine whether P-58 analyses provide more insight into damage than variations in ground shaking between buildings. Two example applications of the methodology are provided, involving nonstructural component data from the 2011 M-w 6.1 Christchurch Earthquake, for which there is negligible variation in shaking between buildings, and the 1994 M-w 6.7 Northridge Earthquake, for which there is notable variation in shaking between buildings. We find that P-58 non-structural component-level loss predictions perform better overall than the ground shaking benchmark in both cases. The methodology offers an understanding of how P-58 component-level loss predictions align with actual observed damage.