Dynamic Violence Risk, Protective Factors, and Therapeutic Change in a Gender and Ethnoculturally Diverse Sample of Court-Adjudicated Youth

Public Significance Statement The study demonstrates the dynamic predictive properties of the Violence Risk Scale-Youth Version-a violence risk assessment, intervention planning, and change evaluation tool for youth-and supports the dynamism of violence risk in a diverse sample of court-adjudicated youth. The research further demonstrates viable and systematic ways of integrating risk and protective factor information and has important implications for gender and ethnocultural responsivity in the assessment, treatment, and management of violence risk. The present study examined the predictive properties of three youth forensic measures-the Violence Risk Scale-Youth Version (VRS-YV), Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors-Youth Version (SAPROF-YV)-in a diverse court-adjudicated sample of 257 youth referred for assessment and intervention services at an outpatient mental health facility, and followed up an average of 9.4 years in the community. Study measures were rated from court and clinical files, along with treatment participation, and recidivism outcome data were obtained from official criminal records. The three measures had strong interrater and convergent validity, and moderate to high predictive accuracy for violent, nonviolent, and general recidivism. The measures significantly predicted outcome across male, female, Indigenous, and non-Indigenous groups; however, prediction magnitudes showed some variability with respect to specific risk/protection domains and outcome types. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated incremental predictive validity for each violence risk measure, but not protection measures, with respect to each of the three recidivism outcomes. Moreover, pre-/posttreatment measurements of change on the VRS-YV dynamic factors were significantly associated with decreased nonviolent recidivism, controlling for baseline risk and protection. Violence risk (VRS-YV) and protection (SAPROF-YV) scores have the potential to be integrated in meaningful ways to capture the potential risk-mitigating effects of protective factors. Implications for integrating risk, protection, and treatment change information in clinical-forensic service delivery to diverse and violent youth populations are discussed.