The politics of referendum rules: Evidence from New Zealand (1893-2016)

Despite widespread concerns about the manipulation of government-initiated referendums, there has been little consideration of the long-term effects of these institutional changes. Using a historical institutionalist framework, I examine two long-standing processes of gradual institutional change in New Zealand: the serial referendum and the two-stage referendum. Cabinet documents, parliamentary speeches, and previous analyses reveal that governments change referendums in unique ways depending on the political circumstances, including precedents set by earlier referendums. Once set in motion, these processes of gradual institutional change can fundamentally transform the functional qualities of the referendum over time. This article suggests that avoiding conceptions of referendums as discrete events can help clarify the challenges and potentials to democratizing popular votes.