Pathways to a more efficient and cleaner energy system in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: A system-based simulation during 2015-2035

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the most dynamic economic urban agglomerations in China, which has a big proportion of the nation's total energy demand. However, there has not been a systemic simulation into the performance of the GBA's energy system in terms of supply and demand, intensity and security during the on-going energy transition. In this study, we develop GBA-specific TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), a system-based energy technology model to assess the effectiveness of existing policies on energy system optimization during 2015-2035. We simulate future energy consumption, efficiency, and security of GBA based on the expected changes of energy structure and other socioeconomic factors. Our results show that the energy consumption of the Pearl River Delta and Macao is expected to slowly grow until 2035, while that of Hong Kong would peak around 2025. The coal supply in GBA would decrease by half in 2035 compared to 2015, and the proportion of non-fossil energies would increase to 44%-45% in 2035 to meet the energy demand. Energy intensities of the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong and Macao are likely to be reduced by 54%, 47%, and 31% by 2035 compared with 2015, respectively. Energy self-sufficiency rate in the GBA would increase from 10% in 2015 to 20-25% in 2035, which could benefit regional energy security. These simulation results show the explicit and long-term dynamics of energy system performances of GBA that are important for taking a more efficient and cleaner approach to energy transition.