Magee Equation 3 predicts pathologic response to neoadjuvant systemic chemotherapy in estrogen receptor positive, HER2 negative/equivocal breast tumors

Magee Equations were derived as an inexpensive, rapid alternative to Oncotype DX. The Magee Equation 3 utilizes immunohistochemical and FISH data for estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), HER2 and Ki-67 for its calculation (24.30812+ERIHC x (-0.02177)+PRIHC x (-0.02884)+(0 for HER2 negative, 1.46495 for equivocal, 12.75525 for HER2 positive)+ Ki-67 x 0.18649). We hypothesize that Magee Equation 3 scores from pre-therapy core biopsy can predict response to neoadjuvant systemic chemotherapy. A prospectively-maintained database of patients who received neoadjuvant systemic therapy from 2010 to 2014 at a single institution was retrospectively reviewed. Pathologic complete response was defined as absence of invasive tumor in the breast and regional lymph nodes. Of the 614 cases, tumors with missing immunohistochemical results and those that were ER negative or HER2 positive were excluded. This resulted in 237 ER positive, HER2 negative/equivocal tumors that formed the basis of this study. Magee Equation 3 scores were divided into 3 categories similar to Oncotype DX, ie, 0 to <18 (low), 18 to <31 (intermediate), and 31 or higher (high) scores. The pathologic complete response rate for low, intermediate and high Magee Equation 3 scores was 0%, 4%, and 36%, respectively. Patients with high Magee Equation 3 scores were 13 times more likely to achieve pathologic complete response compared to those with Magee Equation 3 scores less than 31 (95% CI 5.09-32.87, P<0.0001). For patients that did not achieve pathologic complete response, high Magee Equation 3 correlated with higher recurrence rate, with the majority occurring in patients with positive lymph nodes in the resection specimen. Magee Equation 3 score >= 31 predicts pathologic complete response in the neoadjuvant setting and for tumor recurrence, when pathologic complete response is not achieved. These results show the utility of Magee Equation 3 in predicting patients who will benefit from chemotherapy but warrant prospective multi-institutional validation.