Ecosystem trends:: evidence for agreement between fishers' perceptions and scientific information

The results of a survey on fishers' perceptions of recent changes in the eastern English Channel ecosystem carried out in 2006 were compared with fishery and bottom-trawl survey data. A hypothesis-testing framework was used, testing the null hypothesis that fishers' statements were true, which permitted evaluation of both agreement and disagreement. Overall good agreement between fishers' statements and scientific data was found, and both sources suggested that the fish community in the Channel is undergoing large changes, among which are decreases in some commercially important species; in addition, a number of human pressures impact the ecosystem. Fishers had an accurate perception of changes and their time-frames, but not necessarily of their causes. They had a greater power than survey data to detect recent changes, showing that fishers' perceptions have great potential as early warning signals.