Toward a political sociology of punishment: Politics and changes in the incarcerated population

This study uses time-series regressions to investigate the political and other determinants of shifts in the prison population. Partisanship is measured with Republican control over the presidency. To gauge presidential effects on public opinion, we include counts of the consecutive years Republicans held the presidency, while latent political conflict is assessed with economic inequality. The necessity to compete for votes with punitive measures is assessed with a presidential election dummy. With crime rates and additional effects held constant, the presence of a law-and-order Republican president and the election variable lead to subsequent expansions in the incarcerated population. The length of time Republicans herd the presidency and economic inequality also explain this outcome. The results suggest that political determinants explain shifts in the percentage of the population that is incarcerated. (C) 2001 Academic Press.