Forecasting research on the functional evolution of the land area in the Dalian core port area

Dalian core port area is an important external transport hub and a development engine in the locality; the functional evolution of its land area is affected by natural conditions, relationship between the port and the city, and social economic development level. Based on remote-sensing images of Dalian, this paper classifies the types of land use and simulates the development pattern of this land area by the CA-Markov-MCE (multi-criteria evaluation) model. This paper considers the impact on the suitability of port construction caused by factors such as nature, society, economy and policy in the model, and determines the weight of each factor by the analytic hierarchy process. Based on the accurate simulation of the actual land area of the Dalian core port area in 2013, this paper forecasts the distribution situation of land area in 2020. The result indicate that the CA-Markov-MCE model can effectively quantify and predict the evolution of the land area, and the Dayaowan port area of Dalian will be the focus point of development in the future.