On the fallacy of averages in project risk management

被引：53

作者：

Elmaghraby, SE

机构：

[1] N Carolina State Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA

[2] N Carolina State Univ, Grad Program Operat Res, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA

来源：

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH | 2005年 / 165卷 / 02期

关键词：

project planning; resource allocation; stochastic work content;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.003

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

Managers recognize the presence of uncertainty in the estimates of the various parameters of their projects, but usually circumvent the required analysis (which can be demanding) by replacing the random variables by their averages. This paper argues against such practice. It demonstrates that gross errors can be committed in cost estimates and in the bids based on them. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：307 / 313

页数：7

共 17 条

[1] Managing new product definition in highly dynamic environments [J].