Integrating potential ecosystem services losses into ecological risk assessment of land use changes: A case study on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In recent years, climate change has caused a significant increase in the natural disaster risk on a global scale, posing a great threat to humans and ecosystems. In addition to natural disasters, climate change and human activity-driven land use changes can also increase the ecological risk by reducing the supply of ecosystem services for humans. However, compared with the mature risk assessment framework in the field of natural disasters, the ecological risk of land use change is still a novel concept, and neither the connotation nor the evaluation methods are sufficiently defined. Therefore, with the help of the classic framework in the field of disaster risk assessment, a new framework for assessing the ecological risk of land use change is proposed and applied to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. The ecological risk of land use changes can be defined as the product of the possibility of land use changes and the hazard (loss of ecosystem services) caused by land use changes. In the future, the possibility of land use change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will be higher in the east and lower in the west; the accompanying hazards are predicted to be higher in the southeast and lower in the central and western regions. The ecological risk of land use changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will be highest in the southeastern part and along the edges of the plateau.