Urban futures, population ageing and demographic decline

This article examines the geographical drivers and outcomes of demographic ageing and population decline and the possible differential impacts on cities and regions. Evidence from OECD and European Union regions and cities is used to motivate discussions about the likely long-run effects of demographic change on the efficacy of public policy to manage the population decline and the fiscal implications of trends towards governance decentralisation. As it becomes evident, there are significant, demographically driven asymmetries regarding both the fiscal underpinnings of local government and the efficacy of local land-use management and adjustment policies. In general, regions facing adverse demographic trends appear to be increasingly vulnerable over the long-term to increasing fiscal constraints, thereby limiting their ability to effectively and pragmatically manage decline.