Fossil fuels, climate change, and the COVID-19 crisis: pathways for a just and green post-pandemic recovery

A climate-positive COVID-19 recovery can accelerate the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Yet, current assessments of recovery stimulus programs suggest that the most fossil fuel producers are more likely to take on a 'dirty' recovery path out of the pandemic than a 'green' one. Such a path will postpone climate action and entrench fossil fuel dependence. To change course, fossil fuel producers have to get on board of a 'green recovery'. For this, cooperative international efforts mobilizing both fossil fuel consumers and producers need to promote 'just transition' policies that increase support for a green shift among fossil fuel companies and producing countries, including fossil fuel exporters. In turn, fossil fuel producers should leverage the opportunity of stimulus packages to reduce their fossil fuel production dependence and help accelerate an energy transition through supply-side measures. A combination of 'green' investments and 'just' transition reforms could help enroll fossil fuel producers into a climate-friendly post-COVID recovery. Key policy insights Fossil fuel producers have mostly promoted 'dirty' rather than 'green' recovery paths from the COVID-19 pandemic A green recovery agenda requires a 'just' transition component to entice and support fossil fuel producers Both demand and supply-side strategies are required to advance a 'just transition' agenda throughout the post-COVID 19 recovery The post-COVID-19 transition requires energy policies responding to the constraints of consumer and producer countries to address climate and equity challenges