The role of prior quitting experience in the prediction of smoking cessation

Aims: In the Transtheoretical Model (TTM), the preparation stage (as applied to smoking cessation) is defined as planning to quit in the next 30 days plus having quit for at least 24 h in the last year. This study examined the value of prior quitting experience as a stage classification criterion by investigating whether prediction of making a quit attempt differed as a function of prior quitting experience. Participants: One thousand and forty-six participants, all planning to quit in the next 30 days, in a randomised trial of the effectiveness of a telephone counselling and computer-generated tailored advice intervention were followed up at 3 months. Findings: A multivariate predictive model had markedly greater capacity to predict making a quit attempt among participants with prior quitting experience (as defined in several different ways), compared to analyses of the overall sample. A previous attempt of 24 h in the previous month was associated with the greatest difference in prediction. A quit attempt in the previous year (the TTM definition) did not discriminate. Conclusions: Recent prior quitting experience moderated the predictive capacity of some variables that influence smoking cessation. The findings provide some support for a stage model of smoking cessation but not its operationalisation by the TTM.