[1] Univ Nottingham, Div Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[2] Univ Nottingham, Div Resp Med, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[3] Univ York, Ctr Hlth Econ, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England
[4] Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Sci, London WC1E 7HT, England
[5] Open Univ, Dept Stat, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England