Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach

被引：13

作者：

Kelly, David L. ^{[1
]}

Letson, David ^{[2
]}

Nelson, Forrest ^{[3
]}

Nolan, David S. ^{[2
]}

Solis, Daniel ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Miami, Dept Econ, Coral Gables, FL 33146 USA

[2] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA

[3] Univ Iowa, Dept Econ, Henry B Tippie Coll Business Adm, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION | 2012年 / 81卷 / 02期

关键词：

Risk perceptions; Correlated information; Bayesian learning; Event markets; Prediction markets; Favorite-longshot bias; Hurricanes; PREDICTION MARKETS; ATLANTIC BASIN; UNITED-STATES; INFORMATION; FORECASTS; EXPECTATIONS; DECISIONS; RESPONSES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.004

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

How do decision makers weight private and official information sources which are correlated and differ in accuracy and bias? This paper studies how traders update subjective risk perceptions after receiving expert opinions, using a unique data set from a prediction market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline, after receiving correlated track forecast information from official and unofficial sources. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way not inconsistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on the perceived quality of the information received. Official information sources are discounted when a perception of bias and credible alternatives exist. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：644 / 663

页数：20

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