Potential Demand for Respirators and Surgical Masks During a Hypothetical Influenza Pandemic in the United States

被引:51
作者
Carias, Cristina [1 ,2 ]
Rainisch, Gabriel [3 ]
Shankar, Manjunath [3 ]
Adhikari, Bishwa B. [3 ]
Swerdlow, David L. [1 ,4 ,5 ]
Bower, William A. [6 ]
Pillai, Satish K. [3 ]
Meltzer, Martin I. [3 ]
Koonin, Lisa M. [7 ]
机构
[1] NCIRD, Atlanta, GA USA
[2] IHRC Inc, Atlanta, GA USA
[3] Natl Ctr Emerging & Zoonot Infect Dis, Div Preparedness & Emerging Infect, Atlanta, GA USA
[4] NCIRD, Modeling Unit, Atlanta, GA USA
[5] NCIRD, Off Director, Atlanta, GA USA
[6] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div High Consequence Pathogens & Pathol, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA
[7] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Influenza Coordinat Unit, Off Infect Dis, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA
关键词
influenza pandemic; respiratory protective devices; PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT; VIRUS;
D O I
10.1093/cid/civ141
中图分类号
R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号
100102 ;
摘要
Background. To inform planning for an influenza pandemic, we estimated US demand for N95 filtering facepiece respirators (respirators) by healthcare and emergency services personnel and need for surgical masks by pandemic patients seeking care. Methods. We used a spreadsheet-based model to estimate demand for 3 scenarios of respirator use: base case (usage approximately follows epidemic curve), intermediate demand (usage rises to epidemic peak and then remains constant), and maximum demand (all healthcare workers use respirators from pandemic onset). We assumed that in the base case scenario, up to 16 respirators would be required per day per intensive care unit patient and 8 per day per general ward patient. Outpatient healthcare workers and emergency services personnel would require 4 respirators per day. Patients would require 1.2 surgical masks per day. Results and Conclusions. Assuming that 20% to 30% of the population would become ill, 1.7 to 3.5 billion respirators would be needed in the base case scenario, 2.6 to 4.3 billion in the intermediate demand scenario, and up to 7.3 billion in the maximum demand scenario (for all scenarios, between 0.1 and 0.4 billion surgical masks would be required for patients). For pandemics with a lower attack rate and fewer cases (eg, 2009-like pandemic), the number of respirators needed would be higher because the pandemic would have longer duration. Providing these numbers of respirators and surgical masks represents a logistic challenge for US public health agencies. Public health officials must urgently consider alternative use strategies for respirators and surgical masks during a pandemic that may vary from current practices.
引用
收藏
页码:S42 / S51
页数:10
相关论文
共 28 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], Interim Guidance for Infection Control Within Healthcare Settings When Caring for Confirmed Cases, Probable Cases, and Cases Under Investigation for Infection with Novel Influenza A Viruses Associated with Severe Disease | Bird Flu
[2]  
[Anonymous], PROP GUID WORKPL STO
[3]   Hospitalized Children with 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1): Comparison to Seasonal Influenza and Risk Factors for Admission to the ICU [J].
Bagdure, Dayanand ;
Curtis, Donna J. ;
Dobyns, Emily ;
Glode, Mary P. ;
Dominguez, Samuel R. .
PLOS ONE, 2010, 5 (12)
[4]   Evaluation of respiratory protection programs and practices in California hospitals during the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic [J].
Beckman, Stella ;
Materna, Barbara ;
Goldmacher, Suzi ;
Zipprich, Jennifer ;
D'Alessandro, Maryann ;
Novak, Debra ;
Harrison, Robert .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF INFECTION CONTROL, 2013, 41 (11) :1024-1031
[5]   Impact of multiple consecutive donnings on filtering facepiece respirator fit [J].
Bergman, Michael S. ;
Viscusi, Dennis J. ;
Zhuang, Ziqing ;
Palmiero, Andrew J. ;
Powell, Jeffrey B. ;
Shaffer, Ronald E. .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF INFECTION CONTROL, 2012, 40 (04) :375-380
[6]   Self-Reported Influenza-Like Illness and Receipt of Influenza Antiviral Drugs During the 2009 Pandemic, United States, 2009-2010 [J].
Biggerstaff, Matthew ;
Jhung, Michael ;
Kamimoto, Laurie ;
Balluz, Lina ;
Finelli, Lyn .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 2012, 102 (10) :E21-E26
[7]   Effects of Vaccine Program against Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus, United States, 2009-2010 [J].
Borse, Rebekah H. ;
Shrestha, Sundar S. ;
Fiore, Anthony E. ;
Atkins, Charisma Y. ;
Singleton, James A. ;
Low, Carolyn Fur ;
Meltzer, Martin I. .
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2013, 19 (03) :439-448
[8]   Considerations for Recommending Extended Use and Limited Reuse of Filtering Facepiece Respirators in Health Care Settings [J].
Fisher, Edward M. ;
Shaffer, Ronald E. .
JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE, 2014, 11 (08) :D115-D128
[9]  
Greenko J, 2003, J URBAN HEALTH, V80, pI50
[10]   Stockpile of personal protective equipment in hospital settings: Preparedness for influenza pandemics [J].
Hashikura, Mayuko ;
Kizu, Junko .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF INFECTION CONTROL, 2009, 37 (09) :703-707