The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability across China

Spring maize (Zea mays L.) is a thermophilic C-4 crop which is sensitive to climate change. This paper provides a detailed assessment of the effect of climate change on the crop from a new perspective, by predicting the probability of the potential distribution of spring maize across China. The affected area of spring maize suitability was identified, and then the affected area was subdivided into the improved area and the deteriorated area. Our results confirmed that there was a detrimental consequence for spring maize suitability under observed climate change from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010. However, our results revealed that warming scenarios of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C were helpful for the suitable area expansion of spring maize. The affected area was smaller under warming scenarios than under historical climate change, revealing that temperature rise alone was not enough to trigger a "tipping point" (a threshold value after which abrupt shifts occur) for spring maize, even if warming is 2 degrees C above the level of 1961-1990. Our results not only benefit China in the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies, but also provide a theoretical judgement that the impact of global warming on the crop ecosystem is not serious if other climate factors remain unchanged.