Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints

被引:86
作者
Goodwin, Philip [1 ]
Katavouta, Anna [2 ]
Roussenov, Vassil M. [2 ]
Foster, Gavin L. [1 ]
Rohling, Eelco J. [1 ,3 ]
Williams, Richard G. [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Southampton, Natl Oceanog Ctr Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England
[2] Univ Liverpool, Sch Environm Sci, Dept Earth Ocean & Ecol Sci, Liverpool, Merseyside, England
[3] Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; CARBON EMISSIONS; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; TEMPERATURE; HEAT; PROJECTIONS;
D O I
10.1038/s41561-017-0054-8
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
To restrict global warming to below the agreed targets requires limiting carbon emissions, the principal driver of anthropogenic warming. However, there is significant uncertainty in projecting the amount of carbon that can be emitted, in part due to the limited number of Earth system model simulations and their discrepancies with present-day observations. Here we demonstrate a novel approach to reduce the uncertainty of climate projections; using theory and geological evidence we generate a very large ensemble (3 x 10(4)) of projections that closely match records for nine key climate metrics, which include warming and ocean heat content. Our analysis narrows the uncertainty in surface-warming projections and reduces the range in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a warming target of 1.5 degrees C above the pre-industrial level requires the total emitted carbon from the start of year 2017 to be less than 195-205 PgC (in over 66% of the simulations), whereas a warming target of 2 degrees C is only likely if the emitted carbon remains less than 395-455 PgC. At the current emission rates, these warming targets are reached in 17-18 years and 35-41 years, respectively, so that there is a limited window to develop a more carbon-efficient future.
引用
收藏
页码:102 / +
页数:8
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