Expected changes in mean seasonal precipitation and temperature across the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century

Three different regional climate models (DMI-HIRHAM5, HadRM3, and KNMI-RACMO2) driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and also driven by global climate models (GCMs) obtained from the EU-Ensembles project have been compared to observed data over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) to assess the accuracy of simulated precipitation and temperature. KNMI-RACMO2 and DMI-HIRHAM5 were the best models for accurately simulating precipitation and temperature, respectively, although large uncertainties still affect their simulations. The same RCM simulations driven by GCMs have been used to project the seasonal expected changes in precipitation and temperature for the periods 2011-2050 and 2051-2090 relative to 1961-2000 under the A1B climate change scenario. From the results, a clear decrease in mean precipitation is expected in most IP for spring, summer, and autumn, but no clear signal was found in winter. Moreover, future projections showed a large increase in mean temperatures in all seasons being more evident in the interior of the IP especially in summer. The decrease in mean precipitation and the increase in mean temperature projected for the IP, could worsen current drought conditions especially for the second half of the 21st century.