Stability and Resilience of Transportation Systems: Is a Traffic Jam About to Occur?

被引：13

作者：

Ghadami, Amin ^{[1
]}

Doering, Charles R. ^{[2
]}

Drake, John M. ^{[3
,4
]}

Rohani, Pejman ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

Epureanu, Bogdan, I ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Michigan, Dept Mech Engn, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[2] Univ Michigan, Dept Math, Ctr Study Complex Syst, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[3] Univ Georgia, Odum Sch Ecol, Athens, GA 30602 USA

[4] Univ Georgia, Ctr Ecol Infect Dis, Athens, GA 30602 USA

[5] Univ Georgia, Dept Infect Dis, Athens, GA 30602 USA

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS | 2022年 / 23卷 / 08期

关键词：

Resilience; Mathematical model; Vehicle dynamics; Roads; Transportation; Numerical models; Numerical stability; Early warning signals; resilience; traffic congestion; tipping point; complex system; GENERIC INDICATORS; PHASE-DIAGRAM; REGIME SHIFT; FLOW; MODEL; TIME; PREDICTION; DERIVATION; NETWORKS; FEATURES;

D O I：

10.1109/TITS.2021.3095897

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

Measurement of traffic flow stability and resilience is a critical step toward evaluating the performance of transportation systems and implementing appropriate management strategies. Quantifying changes in the stability and resilience of transportation systems, however, is hampered by the complexity of real traffic dynamics and the diversity of infrastructures. Here, we demonstrate that changes in traffic flow stability and resilience are signaled by generic features, known as early warning signals in the theory of critical slowing down, observed before traffic instabilities occur. This finding is incorporated in an operational data-driven algorithm to evaluate the risk of traffic jams on highways. Theoretical findings and tests on simulated and empirical case studies support the premise of this approach and identify candidate statistical measures that are sensitive to changes in the stability and resilience of transportation systems. Our use of universal measures advances the monitoring capability, prediction and control of complex transportation systems.

引用

页码：10803 / 10814

页数：12

共 56 条

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