Environmental and economic impacts of expanding electric vehicle public charging infrastructure in California's counties

Plug-in electric Vehicles (PEVs) are believed to be one of the solutions to mitigate emissions from road transportation. Which types of factors are most effective at encouraging PEV adoption, and what magnitude of reduction in emissions could be achieved by expanding charging infrastructure as an influential factor on PEVs? To answer these questions, we developed a statistical model relating charging station infrastructure and other potential factors to PEV adoption rate in 58 California counties. We found that male buyers in households with fewer number of vehicles are more likely to purchase PEVs particularly in counties with more available public charging station per capita. Then we investigated the life-cycle petroleum use, emissions, and costs of light duty vehicles for a hypothetical scenario where existing public charging stations are expanded relative to total daily miles travelled in each county. We found under this scenario Modoc County experiences the largest reduction in life-cycle GHG emissions, by 0.035%, followed by Sierra and Mono counties. The smallest potential is found in counties with low response rate to expanded charging station infrastructure, led by Alpine, Del Norte, and King counties. For 20 counties, including Butte, San Joaquin, and San Francisco, the benefit-cost ratio is less than one, which means the investment and maintenance costs of new infrastructure have not been offset by operation and externality cost savings. For the rest of the counties, this scenario is found to be compatible. The results assist planners in assessing environmental and economic benefits of PEVs and optimizing infrastructural investments.