Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia

被引：16

作者：

Kompas, Tom ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Pham Van Ha ^{[1
]}

Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen ^{[4
]}

East, Iain ^{[5
]}

Roche, Sharon ^{[5
]}

Garner, Graeme ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Australian Natl Univ, Australian Ctr Biosecur & Environm Econ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT, Australia

[2] Univ Melbourne, Ctr Excellence Biosecur Risk Anal, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[3] Univ Melbourne, Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[4] Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT, Australia

[5] Dept Agr Fisheries & Forestry, Anim Hlth Epidemiol, Canberra, ACT, Australia

来源：

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS | 2017年 / 61卷 / 04期

关键词：

Australia; bulk milk testing; dynamic optimisation; foot-and-mouth disease; surveillance; VACCINATION STRATEGIES; ANIMAL-DISEASE; GREAT-BRITAIN; EPIDEMIC; BIOSECURITY; SPREAD; MODEL; TRANSMISSION; UNCERTAINTY; SENSITIVITY;

D O I：

10.1111/1467-8489.12224

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;

摘要：

Previous foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation-based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post-outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.

引用

页码：515 / 538

页数：24

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