Reliability and security analysis of electrical industrial systems using probabilistic networks

Currently, there is a major interest into get electrical industrial systems (EIS) with high levels of security, quality, reliability and availability (SQRA) because of EIS are the most critical infrastructure of many industries that uses sensible electronic loads or major processes based on electricity supply. Current SQRA analysis in EIS uses methodologies to evaluate the performance of the system under steady state conditions; however, these methodologies do not consider effects caused by instantaneous and/or transient disturbances. This paper presents a methodology in order to evaluate the security of the EIS considering SQRA factors and the system response to sudden disturbances produced by internal, such as short circuits, or external factors, as energy supply interruption. It is proposed the security analysis of EIS based on Bayesian Networks and generalized stochastic Petri Networks and they are tested on the IEEE 493 system proposed by the IEEE Gold Book. The obtained results allow the development of analysis of power quality phenomena influence on the security and reliability of the EIS. Also, the methodology allows the identification of both hidden failures and erroneous coordination of protections.