Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa

被引:28
作者
Ojara, Moses A. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Lou, Yunsheng [1 ,2 ]
Aribo, Lawrence [3 ]
Namumbya, Silvia [3 ]
Uddin, Md. Jalal [1 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[2] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Appl Meteorol, Jiangsu Key Lab Agr Meteorol, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[3] Uganda Natl Meteorol Author, Clement Hill Rd,POB 7025, Kampala, Uganda
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Dry spells; Lake Kyoga Basin; Markov chain process; Mann-Kendall; Agriculture; Uganda; EL-NINO EVENTS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SPATIAL VARIABILITY; SHORT RAINS; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER; TRENDS; IMPACT; INTERPOLATION;
D O I
10.1007/s11069-019-03822-x
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The economy of Uganda depends heavily on rainfed agriculture. In this study, daily observed rainfall datasets from 9 weather stations with length varying within 1955 and 2017 were used to generate the probability of rainfall and dry spells occurrence using a Markov chain approach. The length of the maximum dry spell was obtained using the direct method based on the definition of a dry day that rainfall is less than 0.85 mm (R < 0.85 mm) and the length of a dry spell is the sum of the number of dry days in a sequence. Mann-Kendall's statistics (MK) was used to assess the trends in the length of maximum dry spells and Sen's slope test to estimate the magnitude of change (Q(2)) in days/per month. MK test results show increasing trends in the length of the maximum dry spells in March at 5 stations, while an insignificant decrease in the length of maximum dry spells is revealed for remaining stations. For the month of April and May, the length of a maximum dry spell is observed to be decreasing across most stations although not statistically significant at the 5% significance level during their respective study periods. The probability of 8 days dry spell is high across all the stations (38-69%) in March, April, and August. This could strongly be related to the changing climate in the region. Negative impacts due to increased length of dry spells could be mitigated through well-timed planting of crops, use of irrigation, and growing of heat-/drought-tolerant crop varieties to match the changing weather and climate patterns.
引用
收藏
页码:493 / 514
页数:22
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