Land surface impacts on subseasonal and seasonal predictability

被引：83

作者：

Guo, Zhichang ^{[1
]}

Dirmeyer, Paul A. ^{[1
]}

DelSole, Tim ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD 20705 USA

[2] George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2011年 / 38卷

基金：

美国海洋和大气管理局; 美国国家航空航天局; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SOIL-MOISTURE; CLIMATE; PREDICTIONS; SIMULATION; DATASET; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1029/2011GL049945

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

This paper shows that realistically initialized land surface states enhance atmospheric predictability significantly out to two-to-three months during summer. The spatial structure of the impact of land initialization on atmospheric predictability can be explained by the simultaneous influence of soil moisture memory time and land surface-evapotranspiration coupling strength. A proxy for this impact based on soil moisture and evaporation anomalies is proposed. The results also show that the impact of the land surface on atmospheric predictability varies with season: enhancement of predictability is relatively small during boreal spring and autumn, and reaches a maximum during boreal summer. Remarkably, the predictability of atmospheric temperature and precipitation increases with lead time from spring to summer. This increase is diagnosed as a "transfer" of predictability from land to atmosphere: during spring, the soil moisture predictability is high, but this predictability does not impact the atmosphere due to lack of land-atmosphere coupling; during summer, the coupling increases, thereby transferring the predictability from land to atmosphere. Citation: Guo, Z., P. A. Dirmeyer, and T. DelSole (2011), Land surface impacts on subseasonal and seasonal predictability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L24812, doi:10.1029/2011GL049945.

引用

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