Machine learning prediction of diabetic foot ulcers in the inpatient population

Background The objective of this study was to create an algorithm that could predict diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) incidence in the in-patient population. Materials and Methods The Nationwide Inpatient Sample datasets were examined from 2008 to 2014. The International Classification of Diseases 9th Edition Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality comorbidity codes were used to assist in the data collection. Chi-square testing was conducted, using variables that positively correlated with DFUs. For descriptive statistics, the Student T-test, Wilcoxon rank sum test, and chi-square test were used. There were six predictive variables that were identified. A decision tree model CTREE was utilized to help develop an algorithm. Results 326,853 patients were noted to have DFU. The major variables that contributed to this diagnosis (both with p < 0.001) were cellulitis (OR 63.87, 95% CI [63.87-64.49]) and Charcot joint (OR 25.64, 95% CI [25.09-26.20]). The model performance of the six-variable testing data was 79.5% (80.6% sensitivity and 78.3% specificity). The area under the curve (AUC) for the 6-variable model was 0.88. Conclusion We developed an algorithm with a 79.8% accuracy that could predict the likelihood of developing a DFU.