Hindcasting of Storm Surges in Batanes during Typhoon Meranti and the Application of Sea Level Rise Scenario Simulations

Typhoon Meranti (locally named Ferdie) traversed the Northern Pacific Basin, affecting the Batanes Islands on September 10 to 15 of 2016. It was estimated that PhP 244.6 million in damages to houses and communities was left in the typhoon's wake. Numerically modeling the storm surges during Typhoon Meranti, and incorporating the sea level rise simulations is vital in assessing the long-term vulnerability of Batanes' coastal communities. This study aimed to simulate storm surges during Typhoon Meranti using the Advanced Multi-Dimensional Circulation (ADCIRC) model and to apply a sea-level rise scenario to the validated and calibrated model. The model was calibrated and validated versus tide station observations at Basco Port, Batan Island. The model yielded an RMSE of 14.45% versus the observations. The maximum surges simulated along Batan islands were below 0.50 meters, while it was observed that simulated storm surges in Sabtang island reached 1.50 meters. The sea-level rise scenario simulations were observed to output storm surges 93.65% higher in 2030 than those observed during Typhoon Meranti. It was also observed that the relative difference of the storm surge heights decreased from 2030 to 2100.