CO2 emissions in China's building sector through 2050: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model

被引:118
作者
Yang, Tao [1 ]
Pan, Yiqun [1 ]
Yang, Yiqun [1 ]
Lin, Meishun [2 ]
Qin, Bingyue [1 ]
Xu, Peng [1 ]
Huang, Zhizhong [3 ]
机构
[1] Tongji Univ, Sch Mech Engn, Shanghai 201804, Peoples R China
[2] China Aviat Int Construct & Investment Co Ltd, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
[3] Tongji Univ, Sinogerman Coll Appl Sci, Shanghai 201804, Peoples R China
关键词
Carbon emissions; Building sector; China; Scenario analysis; Energy policy; CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION; GREY MODEL; TRANSPORT SECTOR; EFFICIENCY; GROWTH; URBAN; PERSPECTIVE; OUTLOOK; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.098
中图分类号
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号
摘要
Global climate change and energy crises have increasingly impeded the sustainable development of society and economy. With an accelerated process of urbanization and improved standards of living, China has become the largest carbon emitter in the world and therefore has great responsibility and great potential to mitigate global carbon emissions. Accordingly, as the largest source of emissions in China, Chinese buildings should also decrease carbon emissions towards this goal. However, until now, there has been no clear and comprehensive understanding of the carbon emissions in this sector. To fill this gap, we survey the current and future situation. Firstly, we estimate the controlled ceiling of building carbon emission, splitting from the overall reduction goal in China. Then we develop a comprehensive carbon-calculating methodology, the China Building Carbon Emissions Model, using a bottom-up approach, and assess the building carbon emissions based on official statistics. On the basis of that, scenario analysis is used to predict the future trend of carbon emissions in China's building sector. According to our analysis, it is critical to simultaneously control floor space, energy consumption and energy structure to limit the growth of carbon emissions in the building sector. Finally, some relative policy suggestions are also discussed. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:208 / 223
页数:16
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